Will Turkey Invoke NATO’s Article 5 over Syria?

NATO members are meeting today to discuss Syria downing a Turkish fighter jet. Concern is rising that this incident could pull NATO into an armed conflict. Turkey has called the meeting under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty—just the second time this has been invoked in NATO history—which states:

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

The circumstances and facts of the incident are not clear. What is clear, however, is that Turkey is not taking this situation lightly . . .
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The Historical Uncertainty of Middle Eastern Nuclear Proliferation

There seems to be one area of agreement between hawks and doves on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program:  the veritable certainty of a nuclear proliferation “casacade” in the Middle East whereby Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and others respond to an Iranian nuclear weapon with nuclear programs of their own.  Fears of that scenario were understandably raised recently when Prince Turki al-Faisal, a member of the royal family and former head of Saudi intelligence, explicitly stated that the Kingdom would consider pursuing its own nuclear capability were Tehran to obtain a nuclear weapon of its own.  Max Boot cited . . .
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Five Meaningless Steps That Will Effect Nothing in Syria

About a year ago, my good friend and colleague Hans-Inge Longo told me about the “Overnight Brief”—a summary of each day’s foreign policy news delivered each morning via email—from the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI).  My initial reaction was “FPI? Bill Kristol’s group??”  Despite my visceral opposition to all things neoconservative, FPI offers a summary of the important news stories that is beyond useful for a foreign policy nerd like myself.  If anything, the “brief” is almost too thorough in summarizing the day’s news from various regions and on a variety of issues.  The only real downside to receiving the . . .
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Non-NATO Missile Defense

Four Republican senators have sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates suggesting radar crucial to the missile defense system NATO agreed to field at its November summit in Lisbon be relocated from a proposed site in Turkey to Georgia (h/t Josh Rogin).  Getting New START ratified in the face of Republican claims that Obama had traded American missile defense in Europe for Russia’s acquiescence to the treaty—despite administration missile defense plans having been available for some time—came close enough to souring already tenuous U.S.-Russian relations but few suggestions could be worse than moving missile defense radars to Georgia.

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